Syria: Part 1

Syria has long been one of the least understood Arab countries in the Middle East, and very unfortunately so, given its extreme importance in Arab politics. Questions like "Why does Syria, unlike Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, support Iran, Hizbullah, and Hamas?" and "Why does Syria feel the need to control Lebanon?" are big issues that are not properly understood. These issues are very deep and complicated ones that are beyond the scope of one blog post, but over a few of the next posts, I'm going to try and shed some light on the mystery that is Syria.

To anyone who has been following the news lately, Syria has made a few surprising moves over the past month or so that have caught the West's eye. Firstly, the Israeli-Syrian peace track has been renewed with indirect talks through Turkey. Secondly, Syria, as well as 40 other countries, including Israel, attended a conference held by France this week, strengthening Syrian ties with the West. And thirdly, Syria and Lebanon have announced that they will establish ties by opening embassies in each other's country.

The question that needs to be asked is "What are Syria's motives for being more friendly towards the West, and are these gestures really genuine?"

Any understanding of Syrian actions, first of all, requires an understanding of Syria's internal politics. Syria is the most diverse country in the Arab world: 60% of the population is Sunni Muslim, 13% is Christian, 12% Alawite, 9% Kurdish, 5% Druze. About a third are not Muslim, and 10% are not Arabs Moreover, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is an Alawite (not Muslim), which Muslims largely consider to be heretics (like Druze). How is it that Syria remains as stable as it is?

The answer is that it was not always stable. From 1946 until about 1970 when Bashar's father Hafez Al-Assad became President, Syria was one of the most unstable countries in the world, lacking any sort of coherent identity, world-view, or system. When Hafez took over, he united the country under the banner of Arab nationalism, intentionally making religion secondary, in order to appeal to the Sunni majority, and hiding the fact that he was not Muslim. In many ways, Syria is similar to Iraq, in that Saddam also ruled a Shi'a majority country as a Sunni country through Arab nationalism. Both used a hatred of the West and Zionism as a rallying point. "The reason your life is not better is due not to your government's incompetence, greed, and oppression but to the Zionists and imperialists. They hold you back from progress, so in order to fight for your rights, you must rally behind your dictator." Thus went the propaganda.

The Arab tendency to blame any and all problems on Israel, Zionism, and the West was taken advantage of in order to solidify Assad's regime. At the same time, the internal situation did not improve at all. The economy, school and health systems, roads and transport, communications and buildings, and all other economic and social progress moved nowhere. All Assad had to do was blame others for everything. Egyptian President Nasser followed a similar approach, and today, Egypt remains a wasteland filled with people who are poor, illiterate, and backwards.

Although, this policy does not solve any problems, it definitely keeps regimes stable. And in a region where political survival is more important than doing what's best for your country, this has become a very popular tactic. The latest leader to start using this tactic is Hassan Nasrallah.

So to sum up a bit, Bashar al-Assad's regime's stability relies on his manipulation of Arab nationalism and pride, aiming Arab anger, which would otherwise be pointed at him, towards Israel. What Syria does best is cause the most amount of mischief in the Middle East that it can without getting itself into too much trouble. It supports insurgents in Iraq, Lebanon, and the West Bank and Gaza, and supports Iran, yet has avoided any major attack on its soil. It supported Hizbullah and caused mischief there, but let the Lebanese people suffer the consequences. Bearing all this in mind, it does not really seem to make sense why Syria would want peace with Israel. It seems to go against Assad's vital interests, because as soon as his scapegoat is gone, so is his rallying point, which unifies his diverse population. To be continued....